Sitting in my seat tonight at the Mets Angels game, I began to hear a familiar voice. To my surprise I was able to meet the greatest Mets fan and purveyor of the truth, Frank Fleming. Fans of he Mets and residents of NJ we thank you Frank. Let’s go Mets! Continue reading “CapFigure ft. Mets Legend Frank Fleming”
Let’s start with the obvious – Jets quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has thrown nine interceptions in the previous two games and currently has a 6% interception rate on the season. Last season, Fitzy threw a total of 15 interceptions, yielding an acceptable 2.5% interception rate. Don’t let these figures fool you, they do not tell the full story, as eight of Fitzpatrick’s 2015 passes were dropped interceptions. Including these eight dropped interceptions, we are now looking at an interception rate of 4.1%. In short, he was extremely lucky to have the season he had last year. The three luckiest QB seasons since 2007 are: former Jets QB Mark Sanchez in 2010 (13 INT, 15 Dropped INT), Cowboys QB Tony Romo in 2009 (9 INT, 12 Dropped INT) and former Jaguars QB David Garrard in 2010 (10 INT, 11 Dropped INT). Let’s see how they fared in the following season, upon regression to the mean:
| LUCKY QB | INT | Dropped INT | INTs Next Year | Team Record | Next Year’s Team Record |
| 2010 Sanchez | 13 | 15 | 18 | 11-5 | 8-8 |
| 2009 Romo | 9 | 12 | 7 | 11-5 | 1-5 |
| 2009 Garrard | 10 | 11 | 15 | 7-9 | 8-8 |
| 2015 Fitzpatrick | 15 | 8 | 10 | 10-6 | 1-3 |
Continue reading “Regression to the Mean – Why Fitzpatrick is Sliding”
JD’s Pick & Methodology
Took a personal day yesterday to drown out my sorrows, because every-time I begin to gain momentum, I lose a few games and get right back into the red. It’s frustrating. As a general rule of thumb, I prefer to see the first game of series and see what happens because it gives me a better idea of what I want to do. Let’s get a little crazy today and shoot for the moon. I’m parlaying both New York teams today, the Mets and Yankees.
The Yankees are in the midst of a dominating spell against the Twins, rolling off 18 of 23 at Target Field. No team seems to be as streaky as The Bronx Bombers, rattling off 4 or 5 wins at a time with ease and then giving it right back with a streak of losses. Michael Pineda has pitched well of late, with a 2.89 ERA (Earned Run Average) over his last three starts. With the depth and talent at the back end of the Yankees’ bullpen, the Bombers just have to keep it close. Pretty dominating.
The New York Mets face rookie starting pitcher Aaron Blair, who hasn’t pitched deep into a game yet, making it to the sixth inning only once. Albeit a small sample size, Blair’s numbers are nothing short of ugly. With an 0-4 W/L record, 25 Walks to 23 Strikeouts and an astronomical 1.82 WHIP; its easy to see why I am confident that the Mets will be able to put a few runs on the board. Although the Atlanta Braves have won 3 in a row, I don’t see them overcoming a power arm in young lefty Steven Matz. I’m simply picking the Mets because they have much more talent. Period.
I’m also taking the over in the Chicago Cubs / Pittsburgh Pirates game today, with the line currently at 7.5 runs. The Pirates will hopefully cause havoc on base-paths because Jon Lester has shown a complete inability to control the opponents’ running game. Meanwhile, the Cubs’ lineup is absolutely stacked with right-handed hitters, which should bode well because they are facing lefty Jonathon Niese. With the friendly confines of Wrigley Field, look for this game to be somewhere in the neighborhood of 5-4.
I’m betting $50.00 on both the parlay and the Over in the CHC/PIT game. If both the Yankees and Mets are able to win, the parlay would pay-out $60.00. Meanwhile if 8 or more runs are scored at Wrigley today, the pay-out would be $45.00.
You can track all of JD’s picks here: JD’s Pick Tracker
Foreward & Editing By: Thomas L. McLaughlin
CapFigure 