JD’s Vegas MLB Picks (June 11th)

JD’s Pick & Methodology

Had you followed my picks all the way through, you would be $57.61 richer (5.45% return on equity) than you were nine days ago. Anyhow for my pick today let’s go to the one and only Yankee Stadium, for a star-studded Saturday night match-up of high-profile starters. The suddenly surging New York Yankees will send the $165 million right arm of Masahiro Tanaka out to compete against the Detroit Tigers’ Justin Verlander ($202 million total contract).

With nearly $400 million in total contract value between the two starting pitchers, its inconceivable that we could be looking at a high-scoring outing in the Bronx, isn’t it? Not exactly…in fact, for today’s pick I will be taking the “Over” on runs scored in this game, which currently sits at 8 runs (-115). Any selection is only as good as the rationale behind it, so let’s take a look at some of the numbers that influenced my decision.

The Tigers’ projected line-up for tonight’s affair has experienced a great deal of success off of Tanaka, with the following noteworthy statistics (albeit, in only 36 total ABs): .306 BA (Batting Average), 6 XBH (Extra Base Hits), 3 HRs and a whopping 1.020 OPS (On-Base Plus Slugging).

Throughout his career, Justin Verlander has struggled when pitching at Yankee Stadium. Since 2013, in the 20.2 innings Verlander has pitched in the Bronx, he’s served up a whooping 7 HRs (Home Runs) and 5.23 ERA. Verlander used to be able to hit 100 mph on the radar gun late into the game but his decreased velocity is especially noticeable against a Yankee line-up that is heavily left-handed and can drive those pitches into the short right-field porch (at Yankee Stadium).

On the surface this appears to be a pitching duel but this is a great example of what digging deeper can help you discover. Both pitchers have sub-par track records against the line-ups they will be facing and it only takes a couple of long fly-balls to run up the scoring, especially at a notoriously hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. Let’s keep producing a profit, I’m going to wager $30.00 on this game with a potential pay-out of $26.09.