PHI (+130) over MIN – Aaron Nola might be one of the best unknown pitchers in the MLB largely in part because he pitches for the Philadelphia Phillies (“PHI”) and has a deceiving 3.51 ERA that should be much lower. Nola currently ranks 4th in the MLB in xFIB at 2.80 only behind Kershaw, Syndergaard, and Jose Fernandez and ahead of names like Strasburg, Arrieta, and Scherzer. Continue reading “JD’s Vegas MLB Picks (June 21st)”
JD’s Pick & Methodology
There’s no team better to end a rough losing streak than the Pittsburgh Pirates at home against a left-handed starter. My confidence may come off as surprising, given that the Pirates are set to face-off against the San Francisco Giants and the modern day Paul Bunyan, Madison Bumgarner. As always though, sports betting is about finding value in the lines, maximizing the potential reward against the perceived risk. For today I will be taking the Pirates in two separate lines, the +1.5 run line and the “over” for the team over / under of 3 runs.
The team run-line of +1.5 runs for the Pirates is currently offering even money, or a line of (+100). While the Giants are clearly to be considered as the favorites, and for good reason, the Pirates are too-good of a hitting line-up against LHP for me to pass up on that value. Even though Bumgarner, or “Mad Bum” as he’s known around parts, has gotten off to a terrific stretch to begin the 2016 season; in 18.1 IP over the past three seasons against the Pirates, Mad Bum sports a rather pedestrian 5.40 ERA, which is his worst against any National League opponent.
A bet of $40.00 on the +1.5 run-line , will yield a potential pay-out of $40.00; while the the Pirates over of 3 runs will yield a potential pay-out of $36.37.
You can track all of JD’s picks here: JD’s Pick Tracker
Foreward & Editing By: Thomas L. McLaughlin
JD’s Pick & Methodology
Took a personal day yesterday to drown out my sorrows, because every-time I begin to gain momentum, I lose a few games and get right back into the red. It’s frustrating. As a general rule of thumb, I prefer to see the first game of series and see what happens because it gives me a better idea of what I want to do. Let’s get a little crazy today and shoot for the moon. I’m parlaying both New York teams today, the Mets and Yankees.
The Yankees are in the midst of a dominating spell against the Twins, rolling off 18 of 23 at Target Field. No team seems to be as streaky as The Bronx Bombers, rattling off 4 or 5 wins at a time with ease and then giving it right back with a streak of losses. Michael Pineda has pitched well of late, with a 2.89 ERA (Earned Run Average) over his last three starts. With the depth and talent at the back end of the Yankees’ bullpen, the Bombers just have to keep it close. Pretty dominating.
The New York Mets face rookie starting pitcher Aaron Blair, who hasn’t pitched deep into a game yet, making it to the sixth inning only once. Albeit a small sample size, Blair’s numbers are nothing short of ugly. With an 0-4 W/L record, 25 Walks to 23 Strikeouts and an astronomical 1.82 WHIP; its easy to see why I am confident that the Mets will be able to put a few runs on the board. Although the Atlanta Braves have won 3 in a row, I don’t see them overcoming a power arm in young lefty Steven Matz. I’m simply picking the Mets because they have much more talent. Period.
I’m also taking the over in the Chicago Cubs / Pittsburgh Pirates game today, with the line currently at 7.5 runs. The Pirates will hopefully cause havoc on base-paths because Jon Lester has shown a complete inability to control the opponents’ running game. Meanwhile, the Cubs’ lineup is absolutely stacked with right-handed hitters, which should bode well because they are facing lefty Jonathon Niese. With the friendly confines of Wrigley Field, look for this game to be somewhere in the neighborhood of 5-4.
I’m betting $50.00 on both the parlay and the Over in the CHC/PIT game. If both the Yankees and Mets are able to win, the parlay would pay-out $60.00. Meanwhile if 8 or more runs are scored at Wrigley today, the pay-out would be $45.00.
You can track all of JD’s picks here: JD’s Pick Tracker
Foreward & Editing By: Thomas L. McLaughlin
JD’s Pick & Methodology
There’s nothing like an AL East match-up to determine first place at Fenway Park to get the juices flowing. Alright its mid-June and its the Orioles not the Yankees but this sets up to be a tantalizing affair none the less. For today’s pick, I will be putting my money on the surging Boston Red Sox . Continue reading “JD’s Vegas MLB Picks (June 16th)”
JD’s Pick & Methodology
After polishing off a nice parlay win yesterday, let’s carry-over that momentum into today’s MLB action. There are two picks that stand out to me today, the St. Louis Cardinals (“STL”) moneyline and the under in the Oakland Athletics (“A’s”) / Texas Rangers game.
The Cardinals send their ace Adam Wainwright to the mound against a Houston Astros team, that has struggled against elite pitching this season. Wainwright, who has posted a quality start in 4 out of his last 5 starts, has limited the long ball at Busch Stadium so far this season. This could be especially worrisome for an Astros team that generates a majority of its offense via the home run ball. Adam Wainwright has dominated the Astros his entire career, with a 13-1 record and a gaudy 1.57 ERA (Earned Run Average). Those numbers are staggering. While I understand the Astros are a completely different team than they were before being relegated from the NL Central to the AL West, something has to be said for the complete domination evidenced by those numbers. Continue reading “JD’s Vegas MLB Picks (June 15th)”
JD’s Pick & Methodology
Today’s MLB action presents quite a few opportunities that I perceive to be lines with strong value. The two teams I feel strongest about are the Toronto Blue Jays (“TOR”) and the San Francisco Giants (“SFG”), currently Vegas is offering lines of (-241) for SFG and (-260) for TOR. Seeing as both of these teams are so heavily favored, it makes sense for me to utilize a parlay bet, which will effectively reduce the juice (or VIG) that I will be paying the house in order to make this bet. Continue reading “JD’s Vegas MLB Picks (June 14th)”
JD’s Pick & Methodology
In recent years there has been no more relevant rivalry to the MLB than that between NL Central foes, the Pittsburgh Pirates and the St. Louis Cardinals. The injury-riddled Pirates are looking to fend off a sweep and one would expect manager Clint Hurdle to pull out all of his tricks, in order to salvage an ever-important division game.
Acquired this offseason in a deal that saw the Pirates send second baseman Neil Walker to the New York Mets, Jonathon Niese has recovered quite well after stumbling out of the gates. The crafty left-handed pitcher is coming off a dominating performance at PNC Park, against his former team (the New York Mets). In fact in his past five starts, Niese has accumulated a 3-0 record with an elite 1.74 ERA (Earned Run Average). If Niese can establish control of his fastball, getting the ball inside to right-handed hitters, it will be difficult to imagine the Cardinals getting multiple runs on the board. Continue reading “JD’s Vegas MLB Picks (June 12th)”
JD’s Pick & Methodology
Had you followed my picks all the way through, you would be $57.61 richer (5.45% return on equity) than you were nine days ago. Anyhow for my pick today let’s go to the one and only Yankee Stadium, for a star-studded Saturday night match-up of high-profile starters. The suddenly surging New York Yankees will send the $165 million right arm of Masahiro Tanaka out to compete against the Detroit Tigers’ Justin Verlander ($202 million total contract). Continue reading “JD’s Vegas MLB Picks (June 11th)”
JD’s Pick & Methodology
Looking through the current odds on today’s MLB action, the line for the New York Mets jumped off the screen and slapped me in the face. Profitable wagering is all about managing the risk, comparable to the potential reward; I love the value I am getting with the moneyline for the Mets (currently at -119) tonight against a paltry, at best, opponent in the Milwaukee Brewers. Continue reading “JD’s Vegas MLB Picks (June 10th)”
JD’s Pick & Methodology
Today I like the St. Louis Cardinals. Crafty left-hander Jaime Garcia should be able to stifle the big bats in Cincinnati’s lineup today. With the Reds’ two biggest bats, Jay Bruce and Joey Votto, being left-handed, it will make generating offense and in turn runs more difficult for them. Garcia is a pitcher and not just a thrower, meaning the outcome of his starts tend to be much less volatile than a lot of the more power-oriented pitchers. Continue reading “JD’s Vegas MLB Picks (June 8th)”
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