JD’s Pick & Methodology
Today’s MLB action presents quite a few opportunities that I perceive to be lines with strong value. The two teams I feel strongest about are the Toronto Blue Jays (“TOR”) and the San Francisco Giants (“SFG”), currently Vegas is offering lines of (-241) for SFG and (-260) for TOR. Seeing as both of these teams are so heavily favored, it makes sense for me to utilize a parlay bet, which will effectively reduce the juice (or VIG) that I will be paying the house in order to make this bet.
The Giants will be facing a (30-34) Milwaukee Brewers team that is sending veteran Matt Garza to the mound for his first start of the season. Needless to say, at AT&T Park against a deep and patient SFG lineup, will make it very difficult for Garza to navigate his way through his first start effectively. Look for lots of base runners and the Giants to string together some timely hits. With the modern day Paul Bunyan (Madison Bumgarner) taking the mound for the Giants, it will not take much from the Giants offense to put a W in the win column. Bumgarner is sporting a ridiculous 1.88 ERA, 99/25 K-to-BB and 1.07 WHIP (Walks Plus Hits Per Inning Pitched) in 86.0 IP so far this season.
As for a Blue Jays team taking on the Philadelphia Phillies in a day match-up at the Rogers Centre in Toronto, I’m simply banking on young ace Marcus Stroman to dominate the still inexperienced Phillies lineup. Stroman has struggled as of late, getting hit hard in his last three starts, two of which were against arguably the MLB’s best offense in the Boston Red Sox and the other was against a very formidable Baltimore Orioles’ lineup. The Phillies lineup is not yet in the same stratosphere as the Red Sox and Orioles and I expect a bounce-back performance from Stroman tonight. Stroman has been working mechanics trying to get on top of his pitches more, so that he can get the elite movement we have come to expect from the flashy young starter. Oh by the way, the Phillies will be sending Zach Eflin out to the mound to make his major league debut, on the road against a Blue Jays’ line-up that features the likes of: Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson and Edwin Encarnacion.
For a parlay bet to pay-out, each of the selections must individually be correct. In the case of a parlay including SFG and TOR today, a $40 wager would yield a potential pay-out of $38.37.
You can track all of JD’s picks here: JD’s Pick Tracker
Foreward & Editing By: Thomas L. McLaughlin