PHI (+130) over MIN –  Aaron Nola might be one of the best unknown pitchers in the MLB largely in part because he pitches for the Philadelphia Phillies (“PHI”) and has a deceiving 3.51 ERA that should be much lower.  Nola currently ranks 4th in the MLB in xFIB at 2.80 only behind Kershaw, Syndergaard, and Jose Fernandez and ahead of names like Strasburg, Arrieta, and Scherzer.  

Expect the Minnesota Twins (“MIN”) to roll out 3-5 lefties due to Nola’s splits being slightly favorable towards right handed bats.  Still, none of their right-handed bats besides Robbie Grossman currently have an OPS of over .900 vs RHP, and the only Twins’ hitter currently slugging over .500 vs RHP is Max Kepler (He has two home runs vs RHP).    Expect a lot of strikeouts tonight.  Nola is currently fanning an average of 9.89 batters per 9 innings, while MIN is averaging roughly 8.72 K/game (24th in MLB).  Nola also pitches much better on the road, boasting an elite 2.27 ERA and .190 BAA (Batting Avg. Against). 

I’m surprised the Twins are favored, then again, it is the Phillies they are facing.  While I don’t see this reaching the 8.0 runs, I do see the PHI bats putting something together against Twins’ starter Tyler Duffey.  Philadelphia has an implied team total of 3.5.  I don’t think they’ll need to exceed it by much if any to pull out the win.  Minnesota’s implied team total of 4.5 is way too high.

A bet of $50.00 on the Phillies, with a current moneyline of (+130) will yield a potential pay-out of $65.00; let’s take this to the bank tonight.

PhiMinnola

You can track all of JD’s picks here: JD’s Pick Tracker

Foreward & Editing By: Thomas L. McLaughlin

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