JD’s Pick & Methodology

Looking through the current odds on today’s MLB action, the line for the New York Mets jumped off the screen and slapped me in the face.  Profitable wagering is all about managing the risk, comparable to the potential reward; I love the value I am getting with the moneyline for the Mets (currently at -119) tonight against a paltry, at best, opponent in the Milwaukee Brewers. 

The two starting pitchers in tonight’s match-up, Matt Harvey and Junior Guerra, are trending in totally opposite directions.  Matt Harvey has experienced an upward tick in terms of velocity and movement in recent starts, meaning the Dark Knight should take the mound confident against a mediocre (and right-handed dominant) Brewers lineup.  If Harvey can command his two-seam fastball, it would be difficult to imagine the Brewers being able to string together enough extra-base hits to score multiple runs.  Taking the ball for the Brew-Crew is the still inexperienced 31 year-old Junior Guerra.  Although Guerra has been fairly consistent throughout the start of the season, I would venture to say that Guerra would not crack the rotation of any contending organization.  Guerra is simply an arm to eat up innings as the Brewers attempt to dis-mantle and then rebuild their organization under new GM David Stearns.  

Starting pitching is the single most important aspect to the value of this line at -119.  Those of you involved in the equity markets might find tonight’s match-up similar to deciding to invest in either Facebook or Twitter.  Facebook (Harvey) has been a dominant player in the tech-industry that continues to adapt and is only becoming more-viable, while Twitter (Guerra) is struggling to find its identity and failing to make any adjustments.  

Today’s bet seems like a slam-dunk, so I’m gonna put my money where my mouth is and put down $75, which at -119 yields a pay-out of $63.03.  Strongly suggest locking this pick sooner rather than later because this line won’t stay at -119 for long.  By the time opening pitch rolls around at 8:05 (EST), this line very well could be up past the -160 neighborhood.

HarveyGuerra

You can track all of JD’s picks here: JD’s Pick Tracker

Foreward & Editing By: Thomas L. McLaughlin

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